- 增長: 👍👍👍👍
- 估值: 👍👍👍👍👍
- 競爭力: 👍👍👍👍👍👍
- 預估1年內股價升幅: 15% to 35%
- 業務簡介: 集成電路(I.C.) 設計及測試的自動化軟件解決方案
- Synopsis (SNPS )從事集成電路設計，受半導體周影響相對低。管理層表示公司的non-cancelable order backlog 已達 71億美元，即可見將來的營業額己被鎖定。公司增長周期相對穩定原因在於: (一) 智能設備，A.I. 及 大數據基建等推動結構性增長。(二) 客戶無論行業周期如何，均注重設計工程，以維持競爭力。此外，客戶追求這三方面的差異化: (一) 具高度運算力的複雜晶片，(二) 高度及緊密整合的晶片以配合進行軟件運算，(三) 在硬件及軟件上更注重保安及安全。
- 管理層 highlights 的競爭優勢是DSO.ai artificial intelligence design solution，此可以降低晶片設計所需時間，以及消耗資源。十大半導體公司中的7間，有採用DSO.ai 作產品設計，公司並把 machine learning 應用入更多的 EDA工序:
Results reported by customers include 25% reduction in turnaround time and compute resources and up to 30% power reduction. With customers such as Samsung, Renesas, Intel, MediaTek, Sony and many others reporting impressive achievements, customer adoptions have accelerated across a wide range of process nodes and market verticals.
- 管理層認為由 A.I. 主導的 I.C. 設計工序會是未來的大趨勢。在智能產品掘起下，I.C. 的複雜性大幅度提高，對整個設計流程有更高度要求，尤其是在整個工序的變革方面。因此，A.I. 在工序的應用，會由設計伸展至測試及認證方面。
As a matter of fact, I think that the whole AI-driven design wave is easily the next decade because it fundamentally changes so many things at the very moment that the customers one way or another are going to grow complexity dramatically because they see so many opportunities in this notion of smart everything. And so in order to do that, you don’t want to just have tools that use AI and be better and faster and so on, you want actually to impact the very design flow.
But the fact is, it’s in the field that you realize what are the issues that one may not have contemplated, and the feedback is very positive because there, too, while the tools have long been optimized with a variety of machine learning and AI capabilities, changing the very workflow is how you get a more profound impact. And so we have a long opportunity space to grow into, but the engagement already signifies that we have results that customers want to keep and turn into production.
Yes, it does require much more attention to the intersection of hardware and software. And in order to do that, you need simulation that is blindingly fast, and that’s why you use hardware accelerators or we call them emulators or prototyping to be able to do that.
But underneath your question, there was another comment, which is really the comment that is it true that complexity still is increasing massively, and the answer is very true, but it’s going to be in a new form, meaning it’s not one chip, it’s multiple chips as close as possible, and it is architectures dedicated to whatever the end markets are.
And so the race is absolutely on in all of these dimensions, but it brings a challenge for our customers that by now after many, many decades, have certainly learned how to optimize for performance and power. They now have to optimize for making it all work: multiple chips, hardware and software, thermal issues.
And that complexity is going to drive all kinds of new products on our side, but also necessitates to look to have focus on the entire flow. And that’s why I’m very encouraged by being at the dawn of really multiple new decades of new technology.
- 剛過去的4Q季績 (10月年結)，公司的營業額及non GAAP 純利按年增11%/4%，較 guidance 為低。但公司為23財年1Q及全年開出的指引正面，自2Q的 yoy 增長應將再行加速。根據此指引的1Q預期: (一) 1Q的營業額及non GAAP 純利 yoy 增長分別為7.8%/4.5%，但部份是因去年1Q的比較基數高，qoq的增長分別改善至6.7%/32.3%，而non GAAP 純利率改善至28,7%。
- 根據公司的全年指引，23年度全年的revenue growth 預計為14.7%，至58.3億美元，預計2Q至4Q的營業額 qoq 增長介乎4%至5%之間。而non GAAP 純利增長預計為16.7%，至16.3億美元，non GAAP 純利率改善至27.9%。若24年度的宏觀及行業周期好轉，盈利增長有機會提速至接近20%。相對其中雙位數增長，公司目前的 31倍預測PE 不算特別吸引，市場似乎是 buy 公司絶對估值不太貴，以及增長的可預視性高/不確定性低。
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