- 關於生產量: 管理層提到電動車生產年增長50%是其中期目標。根據管理層的講法，Berlin及Austin Gigafactory的年產能初期每間廠20多萬架 per year，再提升efficiency 及 capacity後可達約50萬架 per year。這個和我對柏林gigafactory 的估算很相符，但由於德州廠房目前仍未有太多消息，所以我對此廠房定得保守點。留意2000萬年產量是其長遠目標，大家可想像到時的盈利及規模水平。我對22年的生產增長推算是45%，目前看來合理。但23年的42% production growth forecast應是偏向保守。
Our goal as a Company here is to grow on an average pace of 50% per year. And so, you can extrapolate that out. There may be some periods of time in which we’re well ahead of that. There could be some periods of time, despite best efforts, where we’re slightly lower than that. …
we’ll take Model Y at these factories (Berlin & Austin). We’re trying to get to 5,000 cars a week as soon as we can. And then we’ll continue to push beyond that, potentially even getting to 10,000 cars per week at those factories. And then we will add Cybertruck here in Austin and continue to grow from there.
So, our goal is to get to millions of cars per year over the next couple of years. And then ultimately in the long term, be able to achieve 20 million cars per year.
- 關於FSD(自動駕駛服務)的監管風險: 管理層只提到安全至上。預計仍須數年時間全部克服對FSD的監管阻礙。
We expect and embrace the scrutiny of these products and know that the truth about their performance and the innovations our products have will ultimately be all that matters. In the end then we take safety as a top priority in all our designs. … safety is extremely important for Tesla. It’s the right thing to do. ….
and this is entirely understandable and expected is that the automotive industry is going through a transition from the traditional car as we know, it to more computer software-oriented sensor suites around them that can manage things beyond just what the driver manages.
- Tesla 開始收集客戶的駕駛數據，並採得足夠數據用以向客戶銷售汽車保險。已取得德州的監管許可進行此業務。預料在可見將來有收入貢獻。
So, this is a very new and very exciting frontier for us. I know that was long-winded but I — we spent a lot of time on this and we put a lot of thought into it. Specifically, with respect to the rollout, the insurance industry in the U.S. is intensely regulated, and it’s regulated on a state-by-state level. That means that we require regulatory approvals from each individual in department of insurance at each individual state. …
Texas is the first state that we launched in. I do want to thank the Texas insurance regulators here, you’ve been great to work with. We have a road map of additional states….
And what we’re seeing in initial take rate data is that, if you compare that to what we’re seeing in California, we’re off to a good start here. So, we’re very excited about it. We’re excited about individual risk-based pricing. We’re excited about the ability for folks to become safer and as a result, save money.
- 關於利潤率目標: 管理層對未來的利潤率擴張很有信心，尤其是FSD 訂閱服務成熟後。管理層更提到mix of hardware-based and software based company的概念，software service 比重提升即代表更高profit margin。然而，管理層也提到原材料上升及Berlin & Austin 新廠房初期的ramp up cost會拖累其短期 profit margin。根據這口風，Berlin & Austin 初期投入的影響，可能較我估算的長一些，但最遲明年下半年會有economies of scale。的確，在連續兩季的good earnings beat 下，短期內業績再出現大驚喜比較困難。
The launch of Austin and Berlin will have ramp inefficiencies there for some period of time until we get those factories up and running. And so that’s likely to put some downward pressure on our margins as those factories ramp. …
But as Drew mentioned earlier, there are a number of unknown unknowns that we’ll need to work through. We are also in this uncertain environment with respect to cost structure. We are seeing costs increase on the commodity side….
And operating expenses as a percentage of revenue has been declining and I expect that trend to continue to happen. And I think the net of all of this is hopefully that we continue to make progress on operating margin over the next 4 of 5 quarters….
As full self-driving matures, as take rates increase, if we are to raise pricing on that, there’s considerable upside both on gross margins and operating margin as that comes to light, as the business starts to become more of a mix of a hardware-based Company and a software-based Company.
So, we feel optimistic about the journey — very optimistic about the journey as we look over into the long term, just a little bit difficult over the next 4 to 5 quarters.
- 關於原材料成本上漲: 的確對公司有影響，而Tesla也 ongoing地利用遠期合約以銷定部份成本及控制風險。
Yeah. We have seen an impact. Our primary exposure right now is around nickel and aluminum, nickel on the cell, aluminum on non-cell. And we have a mixture of contracts with various suppliers….
We do have a number of long-term commitments and long-term contracts in place. We also have contracts where there’s some amount of cost -sharing based upon the movement of indexes. And so, as these have been moving, some of those costs have been flowing through to us. It’s unsubstantial amount of cost, but it’s not small.
- 最後再問及新Gigafactory的進度: 不要寄望今年能正式生產，今年底前只會是試產。聽管理層口風，不要對新Gigafactory的初期生產看得太樂觀，因新廠房仍有很多需要磨合適應，較保守點是明年下半年才有顯著生產量。目前市場對Tesla有些overhype，我認為在新廠房這方面是downside risk多過upside surprise。Anyway，我認為即使Berlin和Austin有短期落差，仍可靠上海和加州Fremont的擴產作為 buffer，以達到明年的production growth最少到40%。
So, it remains our target in both Austin and Berlin to be able to build our first production cars before the end of the year. We’ve talked about this a bit. The unknown of unknowns, new factories, new vehicle designs, new technologies, new locations, new teams…..
So, there is quite an execution journey ahead of us, but that remains our target. And all of our plans are oriented around that. We — for — we should not expect for us to deliver cars by the end of 2021 from these factories, even if we do produce some….
So, homologation, regulatory reasons, and we want to make sure that we build up some number of cars that we’re confident in the quality and the customer experience around them. The second thing that I’ll say and I mentioned this in my opening remarks, is because of the newness here, it’s extremely difficult for us to be precise in what the ramp will look like….